A blog to support BA 762 Research Methods, a PhD course at the U of Kentucky.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Forecasting the election using simulations
Here's a cool site that forecasts election results using regression and simulation techniques. Note that many of the percentages you will see on the site are probabilities of winning, rather than percentages of the vote. The site is http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Professor and Endowed Chair of Management at the University of Kentucky. Member of Kentucky's LINKS Center for social network research in a business context.
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Just a post-election note on the accuracy of the predictions by fivethirtyeight.com.
ELECTORAL VOTES
Predicted: 348.6
Actual: 364 (as of 6 Nov)
POPULAR VOTE
Predicted: 52.3%(Dem) 46.2% (Rep)
Actual: 52% (Dem) 46% (Rep)
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