Monday, November 3, 2008

Forecasting the election using simulations


Here's a cool site that forecasts election results using regression and simulation techniques. Note that many of the percentages you will see on the site are probabilities of winning, rather than percentages of the vote. The site is http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/


2 comments:

Steve Borgatti said...

Just a post-election note on the accuracy of the predictions by fivethirtyeight.com.

ELECTORAL VOTES
Predicted: 348.6
Actual: 364 (as of 6 Nov)

POPULAR VOTE
Predicted: 52.3%(Dem) 46.2% (Rep)
Actual: 52% (Dem) 46% (Rep)

Steve Borgatti said...
This comment has been removed by the author.